The original version of Best Bike Split was created during the 2013 Tour de France. Since then we have continually focused on refining the model and creating a tool to help athletes achieve their best on race day. Through our work with TrainingPeaks and various pro teams we have expanded our modeling capability to provide tools that athletes and teams can use to help refine road racing tactics as well as individual time trialing. For the 2016 Tour we will focus on analysis of all the stages to highlight potential tactics to watch for and point out where certain riders might gain an advantage.
To do this we model the peloton as if it were a single rider using front pack drag characteristics and typical power levels of the riders on the front of the peloton. Using our Time Analysis tool we then determine where on the course changes in power, drag, weight and rolling resistance could have the biggest impact on the race. This allows us to pinpoint key areas to watch based on terrain, rider profiles and weather.
During our analysis we look for sections of the course where there is a greater time gain for a power increase followed by longer sections of relatively low time gain. This represents a scenario where a group or solo rider could try to get away and where a delayed response from the peloton could hinder efforts to pull them back. Using the Time Delta line (shown on the Time Analysis chart above) we can determine an ideal point of attack based on locations that show the greatest time gain per 100 meters. On different category hills we can also see what type of watts/kg will be needed for various types of riders.
Team tactics will vary greatly based on each team's goals and also on what the other teams do. With our models we will try to give a bit of insight into where teams might find natural advantages or disadvantages based on a specific course, race day conditions and individual rider profiles. Unlike most traditional stage analysis, our's will not focus as much on specific athletes but on the course and tactics that could play out during each stage.
Stage Analysis
For each stage we will include a stage overview, weather forecast and analysis as well as interactive charts showing power, speed, elevation, weather and course map. You will also have access to our powerful Time Analysis tool which will allow you to adjust power, drag, weight and/or rolling resistance; giving you the ability to see the same time deltas that we see in our analysis. Check back for individual stage analysis to be posted here the day before each stage start.
How Best Bike Split Models the Tour de France
Best Bike Split's Tour de France stage analysis is built on the same physics-based power modeling used by athletes and coaches to plan real-world races. Each stage is modeled using route elevation data, distance, aerodynamic and rolling resistance assumptions, the same inputs that drive a Best Bike Split race plan. As race day approaches, models are rerun to pull in live weather data layers in wind speed, wind direction, temperature, and precipitation risk so the model reflects the most accurate weather predictions. The result is stage analysis grounded in watts, not just narrative, giving cyclists a more meaningful way to understand what each day of the Tour actually demands. Whether you're following the GC battle, chasing a breakaway stage, or just trying to understand why a 127 km stage to Alpe d'Huez can be harder than it looks on paper, Best Bike Split's stage modeling gives you the numbers behind the race. Create a free account to access all 21 stage workouts, scaled to your FTP and ready to load into Zwift or your training app of choice.
