2013 Tour de France Stage 11 TT Prediction

As part of our model verification process we decided to test the model's predicted best possible time against yellow jersey rider Chris Froome heading into the Tour de France's Individual time trial. Before the 11th Stage we did a model run to determine Chris Froome's optimal finishing time. The model correctly predicted that given the wind conditions he would be ahead of Tony Martin's time at the first two checkpoints, and that he would fade over the last section due to the strong head wind component of the cross wind heading to the finish. The model predicted that there was almost no way for him to beat Tony's time given his estimated power numbers from previous races.

We were very excited to see that Chris's time came in less than 9 seconds from our model's prediction.
Ryan Cooper

We also did some post race analysis on some of the other riders (drag coefficients were estimated using Heil DP. method and power targets were estimated based on previous race effort comparisons to known power data).

Rider	Model Estimate	Actual Time
Chris Froome	36 min 32 sec	36 min 41 sec
Alberto Contador	38 min 41 sec	38 min 44 sec
Richie Porte	37 min 33 sec	37 min 50 sec
Tony Martin	36 min 18 sec	36 min 29 sec
Cadel Evans	38 min 41 sec	38 min 59 sec

And a few fun what ifs.

Rider	Model Estimate	Actual Time
Wiggins (2012)	36 min 1 sec	NA
Cancellara	36 min 32 sec	NA
Armstrong (2012)	37 min 24 sec	NA

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