2013 Tour De France Stage 11

FroomeAs part of our model verification process we decided to test the model’s predicted best possible time against yellow jersey rider Chris Froome heading into the Tour de France’s Individual time trial. Before the 11th Stage we did a model run to determine Chris Froome’s optimal finishing time. The model correctly predicted that given the wind conditions he would be ahead of Tony Martin’s time at the first two checkpoints, and that he would fade over the last section due to the strong head wind component of the cross wind heading to the finish. The model predicted that there was almost no way for him to beat Tony’s time given his estimated power numbers from previous races.

We were very excited to see that Chris's time came in less than 9 seconds from our model's prediction.

Ryan Cooper

We also did some post race analysis on some of the other riders (drag coefficients were estimated using Heil DP. method and power targets were estimated based on previous race effort comparisons to known power data).

Rider Model Estimate Actual Time
Chris Froome 36 min 32 sec 36 min 41 sec
Alberto Contador 38 min 41 sec 38 min 44 sec
Richie Porte 37 min 33 sec 37 min 50 sec
Tony Martin 36 min 18 sec 36 min 29 sec
Cadel Evans 38 min 41 sec 38 min 59 sec

And a few fun what ifs.

Rider Model Estimate Actual Time
Wiggins (2012) 36 min 1 sec NA
Cancellara 36 min 32 sec NA
Armstrong (2012) 37 min 24 sec NA