Kona

The 40th Anniversary of IRONMAN is setting up to be an epic showdown for the pro field at the world championship. If the IRONMAN 70.3 World Championship was any indication of the level of athleticism, we may be in store for more record-setting performances for both the men's and women's race this year.

Make Your Predictions Sweepstakes

Congratulations to Neal Oseland, the winner of our Make Your Predictions Sweepstakes! Neal won a Premium Athlete Subscription for a full year and says he'll be using Best Bike Split as he plans, trains and races IRONMAN 70.3 St. George and IRONMAN Chattanooga next year

Pro Men Avg. Prediction BBS Prediction Actual Time
Javier Gomez 04:25:29 04:19:34 DNF
Patrick Lange 04:26:51 04:25:35 04:16:05
Lionel Sanders 04:17:33 04:15:22 04:16:59
Andrew Starykowicz 04:18:24 04:12:54 04:12:18
Cameron Wurf 04:16:40 04:08:33 04:09:06
Pro Women Avg. Prediction BBS Prediction Actual Time
Lauren Brandon 04:55:00 04:55:33 DNF
Mirinda Carfrae 04:56:23 04:57:28 04:46:05
Lucy Charles 04:51:49 04:41:23 04:38:11
Anne Haug 04:54:35 04:46:01 04:47:45
Daniela Ryf 04:48:31 04:27:43 04:26:07

Best Bike Split's Predictions

Here are our estimated TSS, Power, Speed and bike splits for a few selected pro athletes. These are based on past performances, weather conditions and publicly available data coupled with our advanced power modeling algorithms.

Athlete TSS Watts/kg Avg. Watts Avg. Speed Bike Split  
Cameron Wurf 221 4.1 296.94 watts 27.13 mph 04:08:33 View Plan
Andrew Starykowicz 255 3.89 311.51 watts 26.67 mph 04:12:54 View Plan
Lionel Sanders 245 4.21 305.23 watts 26.41 mph 04:15:22 View Plan
Javier Gomez 276 4.42 254.26 watts 25.98 mph 04:19:34 View Plan
Patrick Lange 283 4.05 263.26 watts 25.39 mph 04:25:35 View Plan
Daniela Ryf 252 3.88 228.94 watts 25.19 mph 04:27:43 View Plan
Lucy Charles 279 3.6 204.20 watts 23.97 mph 04:41:23 View Plan
Anne Haug 266 3.6 189.62 watts 23.58 mph 04:46:01 View Plan
Lauren Brandon 309 3.15 193.04 watts 22.82 mph 04:55:33 View Plan
Mirinda Carfrae 340 3.53 184.01 watts 22.67 mph 04:57:28 View Plan

Weather Forecast

Last year's race featured pristine weather conditions. There was a slight overcast and the strong prevailing winds never materialized for the pro race. This led to the top three bike splits all shattering Normann Stadler's long held record from 2006. We don't expect this year to be as conducive to record bike splits (which will actually please the stronger cyclists). Check back for updates on the weather as race day approaches.

Race Analysis

Ryf has again dominated this year and will be looking to add to her legacy as arguably one of the greatest endurance athletes of all time. We have seen that anything can happen in Kona, and if Ryf should falter or have an off day, Lucy Charles, Anne Haug, and a host of others all have a legitimate chance to take the top spot. Carfrae should also never be overlooked as a defending champion and one of the all time great runners in the sport across both women and men, especially in the heat and humidity.

On the men's side, the injury to Jan Frodeno has opened the door with no clear favorite to take his place. Lionel Sanders will be eyeing the top spot after a close second last year, Patrick Lange will hope to run down the field again, and Javier Gomez might be the best bet to break the recent German stranglehold at the top of the podium after a hard fought third at the 70.3 World Championship.

Major tactics will be on display with more über bikers in the field (Starkey, Wurf, Sanders, Kienle, Amberger, etc.) and what is sure to be less than the ideal wind conditions experienced during last year's record breaking bike day.

Strong cyclists will try to put major time gaps into Lange, Gomez, McNamee and Hanson to prevent a repeat of last year's come-from-behind win. 2018, maybe more than any other year, sets up to be a showdown between the elite cyclists and fastest runners in the sport, which could be great for Sebastian Kienle and Lionel Sanders. We are sure they are hoping for more typical Kona winds this year.

Try using the Time Analysis tab to see how you would do by varying Drag (CdA), Power and Weight.