At 214.5 km, Stage 12 is a long trek that become progressively more difficult as the kilometers tick away. Starting in Pau the course heads out of town through the foothills of the Pyrenees for the first 100 km. At 111.5 km riders will start to face a series of 5 high category climbs. The most difficult portion of the course will be the last 30 km which have the HC climb of Port de Bales followed by the combination of the Cat 1 Col de Peyresourde and the short but very steep Cat 2 to Peyragudes. The final climb to the finish features grades up to 16%.
| Stage Type | Mountain |
|---|---|
| Stage Distance | 214.48 km |
| Estimated Time | 05:47:43 |
| Avg. Peloton Speed | 37.01 km/h |
| Avg. Pulling Power | 341.77 watts |
| Avg. Pulling Yaw | 2.78 ° |
Winds will be light and the temperatures should be moderate with little to no chance of rain. On the climbs there should be a slight tail wind which will make the apparent temperature feel much warmer to the riders.
There are plenty of places for early breaks and with an uphill finish a larger early break could stick; however, once the GC starts applying pressure the gaps drop very quickly. Froome hasn't had a stage win yet and with Aru taking 20 seconds on the last Summit finish (and attacking during a mechanical) we are sure he is eager to make a statement.
Analyzing Uran's Stage 9 power data shows that the riders in the lead group did not put out quite enough power to stress Froome in the steep sections up the Mont du Chat. The attack by Aru, coinciding with Froome's mechanical was actually at a steep section of the climb and probably one of the best place for a sustained attack. Uran had to up his power to 6.6 watts/kg to respond to Aru before they slowed the race to allow Froome back up to the group.
In Stage 12 the final short 2.4 km Cat 2 climb to Peyragudes features the types of gradients that could put some pressure on Froome much like Stage 5. For an attack to stick it will probably have to start right at the base of the climb coming off a fast descent of Col de Peyresourde. Even at 6.2 watts/kg Uran, Aru and other GC contenders might not have enough to shake Froome as any weight difference is just not enough to offset his higher raw power unless the gradient is very steep. The only chance may be to pressure early in the climb and find something in the tank in the last 600 meters where the road kicks up to 16%.
Analysis was performed by modeling the peloton as a single rider using front of the pack drag characteristics and pulling power targets. Take a look at the entire race plan that was used for this analysis, which includes additional features, metrics and downloadable files.
Stage 12 Race Plan: https://www.bestbikesplit.com/client/72308