Stage 4 is considered a flat stage though it does feature a slow steady false flat throughout the course. There are a couple of rollers for the group to contend with but only one Category 4 climb with about 37km to go in the race. With just one climb perhaps Nate Brown from Cannondale-Drapac can retain the Polka Dot jersey for the US on July 4th.
| Stage Type | Flat |
|---|---|
| Stage Distance | 207.42 km |
| Estimated Time | 04:46:41 |
| Avg. Peloton Speed | 43.41 km/h |
| Avg. Pulling Power | 343.19 watts |
| Avg. Pulling Yaw | 2.06 ° |
At over 200 km it will be another long day in the saddle for the riders, and with a hard Stage 5 looming some teams might be content to hold back. In the last two days early breaks have gone only to be caught before the line. In this stage the course is setup where there will be a predominate crosswind wind without the benefit of a longer headwind section into the finish which tends to hurt the breakaway riders (who are much less fresh) than the peloton. If the break has a gap of 1:30 with 20 km to go the peloton will have to push over 15% more power at the front to pull it in and set up the sprinters. Teams setting up for the sprint might try to keep any break hovering around a minute but if the gap gets big there could be a chance for a surprise. The sprint is a bit tricky with a couple of turns and a slight positive gradient, but if it comes down to it look for Kittel, Cavendish, Greipel, or Arnaud Demare, who would be looking for a big win for the French.
Analysis was performed by modeling the peloton as a single rider using front of the pack drag characteristics and pulling power targets. Take a look at the entire race plan that was used for this analysis, which includes additional features, metrics and downloadable files.
Stage 4 Race Plan: https://www.bestbikesplit.com/client/71286