Heading east out of Carcassonne the riders will see 2 small category 4 climbs early on in the race at 38 km with the Côte de Minerve and at 57 km with the Côte de Villespassans. The remainder of the course is relatively flat and wide open so the wind will have an impact on the riders. The intermediate sprint point is at 113.5 km into the race, right before a short non categorized climb. The final 20 km into the finish at Montpellier will be flat but the cross winds could cause some havoc.
|Avg. Peloton Speed
|Avg. Pulling Power
|Avg. Pulling Yaw
With the course traveling generally east to north east for the entire 162 km the riders will experience a steady left to right cross wind for the entire stage. The wind may play a factor as it increases throughout the day up to about 30 km/h with around 40 km left in the stage. The temperatures should be nice and not have much effect at all being a mild 22 to 25 degrees.
The last chance for a few days for the true sprinters to battle it out. With Ventoux looming in stage 12 and forecasted strong cross winds teams might want to conserve a bit of energy on the day and let the sprint teams do most of the work. There are two category 4 climbs early in the race and a small group could try to make a break, but with the wide open stretches of road and 25 km/h + cross wind as they race towards the finish it will be a long day out front for sure. There will definitely be some echelons forming, so a larger break could sneak away if it's well organized, but most likely the sprint teams will want a shot at the stage. The run into the finish is straight with a slight kick up before a very fast flat 600 meters to the line and the wind will be at their backs, so it sets up for a perfect finish for the true sprinters. If Cavendish can time it right again he'll be looking for win number 4!
Analysis was performed by modeling the peloton as a single rider using front of the pack drag characteristics and pulling power targets. Take a look at the entire race plan that was used for this analysis, which includes additional features, metrics and downloadable files.
Stage 11 Race Plan: https://www.bestbikesplit.com/client/44164