Stage 1 starts in Mont-Saint-Michel and winds it's way North up the Coast before turning inland and crossing east to finish at Utah Beach in Sainte-Marie-du-Mont. The course is relatively flat save for some early short category 4 climbs at Cote d'Avranches (20.5 km) and Cote des falaises de Champeaux (39 km). There are several rolling hills with an interesting section to watch from 162.5 km to the finish.
|Avg. Peloton Speed
|Avg. Pulling Power
|Avg. Pulling Yaw
Current weather conditions are calling for an increasing wind that will primarily be a cross wind as the riders head up the coast. Once they turn inland the cross wind will turn to a cross/tail wind. As they reach the east coast and turn back inland they will turn into an increasing cross/head wind that will turn back to primarily tail wind for the last 10-12 km. The wind conditions could very well play into the tactics on the day and potentially lead to some interesting outcomes on what would typically be a normal bunch sprint.
While it is highly likely that the first stage will end up in a bunch sprint. There are a couple of opportunities where a small group might try to get away up one of the early short climbs. Due to the strong cross winds up the coast a chase effort would be hindered so sprinter teams will most likely shut down any break attempt. Even with that, look for echelons in the strong cross wind where things can get interesting during the first 100 km. If a group can put some time into the peloton from 98-103 km then rest till the small climb heading into La Haye-du-Puits they may be able to stay clear until wind conditions become less favorable around 160 km. If a rider or group wanted to try to play spoiler to a bunch sprint, a move going up to Sainte-Mere-Eglise (163 km) that then descends down from a cross/head wind to a tail wind through the rolling hills for the last 15 km might be the only chance. The 2 km run in to the finish is a bit too long for much to stick, so the sprinters should have the day. To achieve this analysis we used the Time Analysis tool to increase power and looked for areas where this increase gave the biggest time advantage versus the pull power at the front of the peloton. The time delta line shows where this increased effort gives the biggest time gain per 100 meters (large spikes). We have pre-adjusted the power slider to represent the effort a rider might put out to break from the front of the peloton. Try adjusting the sliders for yourself to find other areas of interest on the Time Analysis tool below.
Analysis was performed by modeling the peloton as a single rider using front of the pack drag characteristics and pulling power targets. Take a look at the entire race plan that was used for this analysis, which includes additional features, metrics and downloadable files.
Stage 1 Race Plan: https://www.bestbikesplit.com/client/43144