With a typical prevailing cross/tailwind Stage 15 sets up nicely for a potential break away win. Even with a gap of 2-3 minutes cresting the final C1 climb up Pic de Nore a small group working together could hold off a peloton over the remaining 41 km. If the prevailing winds hold up a chase group would need to average about 25% more power over a small lead group after the climb to reel in a 3 minute lead. With the rest day coming up and tired legs a few riders might want to go for a long distance solo win and some good TV coverage. Get additional Data-Driven Coverage of the Tour on TrainingPeaks.
The peloton was modeled as a single entity using the typical pulling power exhibited by riders at the front of the main group. See what you would ride this stage in on a solo ride by setting the power to 85% of your FTP on the Time Analysis Tool.